After a beautiful weekend and a nice start to this work week, rain could be on the way.  It could be a lot of rain.  In fact, we could be talking about several inches of rain.  Better the 'R' word than the 'S' word though, no?  Either way, the weather is about to go downhill fast heading toward Thursday and the upcoming weekend.  Outdoor plans?  Get them in while you can between today and tomorrow.  Temperatures will still be in the 50s, however, despite the gray and gloomy days ahead...remember to accentuate the positive!

The main problem is that not only will two storm system be converging on Pennsylvania, but an area of low pressure will stall just overhead for the weekend bringing even more wet weather into the equation.  In fact, the GFS numerical model paints several inches falling between the Thursday-Sunday time period.

The latest run gives Harrisburg over 3.5 inches of rain through Sunday!  That's amazing.  The one caution: the GFS usually overdoes precipitation this far in advance of an event.  Having said that, I feel confident that four straight days of rain will produce a good amount for many locales across the Midstate.  Thank goodness most of the snow has had the chance to melt with the warmer weather we have been experiencing.  Otherwise, we could be in for a world of hurt by week's end.  If this were to verify, minor flooding would of course be a concern, but without the snow pack, our chances are greater of sneaking by without too many problems.  I have a feeling later model runs will back off on the total.  Just a hunch...

In the meantime, let's look at the evolution of this system.  I would like to show images from the latest GFS model run for the afternoons of Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Pay attention to how the storm evolves and lingers through the weekend. 

Notice how the system just stalls right over Pennsylvania.  There is also a cut-off low that forms directly overtop the Midstate region by Sunday afternoon.  (PS: Don't forget to spring ahead Saturday night...we lose an hour of sleep...) It looks like this storm wants to hold on for dear life and not let go.  Temperatures will remain on the mild side with highs each day in the mid 50s.  Don't be surprised, though, if we wind up with a lot of rainfall by next weekend.  Flooding will be a concern if this verifies, but I'm hoping it will not be a widespread concern.  We'll keep you posted...

Since March 2010 has pretty much entered like a lamb (thank goodness), and because there isn't any significant weather to blog about, I thought I would take this time to reflect on the month that was February.  What a month it was for the Midstate.  It will go down as probably the worst (or best depending upon your perspective) winter month of all time for the Midstate region.  In fact, it was the snowiest month ever recorded at Harrisburg International Airport!  That is truly amazing!  We have seen history.  The previous five snowiest months were all recorded in January.  Wow!  Let's get to the actual numbers...

The average snow for February is 10.1 inches.  We kicked that average in the behind last month with a grand total of 42.1 inches of snowfall.  In fact, that set a February record surpassing the old number (set back in 1893 no less) of 30.3 inches.  As mentioned above, not only was last month the snowiest February on record, but the snowiest month ever...simply remarkable.  The season to date average, as of the end of February, is 29.2 inches.  So far this winter season we have measured 57.3 inches of snow at Harrisburg International Airport.  This is where I issue my mea culpa...

Earlier this season, I wrote a blog about my belief that it could be another long winter for some without snow.  That being said, I did write a blog back in October explaining my belief that we would see a cold winter that could spell trouble in the snow department.  As we got into December though, my snowfall outlook changed based upon storm tracks I was seeing at that time.  Perhaps I jumped the gun a little by suggesting that we would see another winter of below normal snowfall.  I was not only basing this on storm track at that time but also my fears that this would be like the previous two winters.  December started off mild and had every indication of giving us mixed events...but then the pattern suddenly shifted and we got our first big snow right before Christmas.  Since that time, we have been in the sweet spot for most of the winter storms this season.  Clearly, nobody could have predicted what we saw here in February, but I will say that I am surprised that this winter turned out to be, well, a winter.  Was it because of El Nino that we saw so much snow?  Maybe.  Perhaps we were just due this year to actually have some cold and snow.  My prediction for the cold did pan out as I will show in a bit.

One last note about the snowfall last month.  The greatest 24 hour snowfall came on February 10 with 12.3 inches.  It did snow 16 out of the 28 days last month at Harrisburg International Airport, but most of the total snowfall last month came from the two big snowstorms.  February 5-6 brought us 18 inches officially.  February 9-10 brought us 15.7 inches officially.  That means that 33.7 inches of the 42.1 inch total came in just 4 of the 28 days last month.  Absolutely astonishing.  Great stuff if you are a snow-lover.  Glad it's March if you're not!

As you can see from the chart above, we were 2.5 degrees below normal last month.  This is pretty significant.  The highest temperature ever recorded in February is 78 degrees back on February 27, 1997.  The coldest temperature ever recorded in February was -13 back on February 10, 1899.  This past month, the highest temperature was 46 degrees on the 21st, while the lowest temperature was 14 on the 15th.  For reference, the highest temperature in February 2009 was 63 on the 11th.  We never got out of the 40s last month!

Just one more note about last month.  There were no tornadoes recorded for the entire United States during the month of February.  This is would be a first and is truly amazing.  I just wanted to pass that fact along...

Enjoy the nicer weather on the way and I'll be back to talk about more interesting weather when there is some.  Let's hope March is as forgettable as February was memorable!

Once again I wanted to write a quick update on what I am thinking for the remainder of this storm.  I have little time this morning so I will not be posting images.  You are simply stuck with my written word ramblings.  Enjoy!

All week we have been telling you that this storm would be a tricky one to forecast.  No, folks, that is not a cop-out...simply a true statement.  Anybody that doesn't believe me is welcome to sit with me at 3:00AM some morning during a forecasting shift and try and deduce our next snow storm.  The point is that coastal storms can be very fickle leading up to and even during the event itself.  Therefore, during the last 24 hours, instead of being mainly a Thursday event, the storm now looks to be an overnight into Friday morning event for us.

Many places picked up about an inch of snow before daybreak this morning (it didn't stick to the roadways though) and then saw the snow taper off in intensity.  The brunt of the storm is now occuring across extreme eastern Pennsylvania from Scranton and Allentown down through Philly.  New Jersey is seeing a fair amount of snow at time time too.  Because of the more eastern track, expect off and on light snow during the daylight hours with little accumulation.  Perhaps 1-2 inches is possible in spots, especially east of Harrisburg.  That means you Schuylkill County!  I really don't expect the snow to pick up until this evening and overnight.

This is a complex beast capable of changing its mind at any time.  Right now, it looks like it will still retrograde westward into New York state later today.  This means we could see wrap around snow bands tonight through tomorrow morning.  The brunt of accumulation would occur during that time, making for a tricky commute Friday.  Total snowfall amounts are still on track for almost nothing down near Chambersburg and Gettysburg to perhaps 4-6 inches around the Harrisburg region.  Some spots, like eastern Lebanon and Lancaster counties could see up to 8 inches.  As this storm develops we will have to keep a close eye on the retrograding factor.  Another slight turn in direction could mean less snow here.  Would anyone really complain if that happens?

This has been the first truly difficult storm to call for us this winter.  A slight shift of only 30 miles can make a big difference when it comes to these types of systems.  For now, expect a very easy day ahead.  The only problem, no matter what happens with the snow, will continue to be the winds.  Winds will pick up this afternoon and increase significantly heading into this evening.  Expect sustained winds of 20-30 miles per hour with gusts up to 50 miles per hour tonight and through the day Friday.  Any snow we get will then create poor visibility issues and will create blowing and drifting probems.

We will, of course, keep you posted on abc27, abc27.com, and the abc27 Weather Channel throughout the day ahead and tomorrow.  Thanks for bearing with us during this tough storm.  It has been a remarkable February and it will definiately be one to remember.  Have a great day and a great weekend!

PS: The weekend doesn't look too bad at this time.  Expect gusty winds to continue for Saturday with a few flurries.  Sunday looks okay too with less wind but still a few flurries.  High temperatures both days will be in the upper 30s.  Enjoy!