Boring Weather Pattern Continues, Plus Watching Earl... - abc27 WHTM

Boring Weather Pattern Continues, Plus Watching Earl...

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August 31, 2010

On this last day of August, it only seems fitting that high temperatures are projected to be in the mid 90s across the Midstate.  It is a perfect summary to the summer of 2010.  Hot and dry have been the conditions that ruled the past three months and our current pattern emphasizes that to a tee.  We have had measurable rainfall only 10 days in August and are currently almost one and a half inches below normal for this month in terms of precipitation.  While last summer saw only a few days of 90 degrees or above, this summer has brought over 20 days of 90 degree heat.  Quite a contrast!  As we head into the unofficial start of fall this weekend (and the start of meteorological fall tomorrow), it seems appropriate that these final days of summer are drier than a bone and intensely hot.

Brett_Blog_1-17.jpg picture by brettsblog

The pattern set-up is simple: a large ridge of high pressure has taken over the eastern part of the country since last Thursday and has parked itself there.  There have been no fronts or waves to knock it from its perch and there won't be until Friday.  Friday will be an interesting weather day for many reasons.  The first of which is the tricky precipitation forecast.  Will this front hold together and give us a shower or a thunderstorm?  It's possible, but hard to say at this point.  Many models have the thing falling apart.  Given the lack of rainfall around here, I'm tempted to go with persistence and think we stay dry Friday.  The other issue is of course Hurricane Earl.  Will we see any rain from Earl?  The answer to this question is a pretty confident no.  Right now, Earl seems to stay far enough east of the Midstate to prevent us from seeing a soaking rain.  However, clouds and a strong breeze are certainly possible here by Friday.  The front will help keep Earl from making a direct impact on the east coast and send him packing back out to the northern Atlantic.  At least that's the way it looks now.

Brett_Blog_2-20.jpg picture by brettsblog

The current satellite picture shows three active storms in the Atlantic.  Only one, however, is a true concern to the United States.  Danielle is already moving back out to sea and has weakened significantly, while Fiona isn't all that strong either and should pose no threat to the United States.  Earl is a very strong hurricane coming in at a category four as of Tuesday morning.  This needs to be monitored very closely.  Even without a direct hit, storm surge will be an issue from the Outer Banks up to the Jersey Shore.  Residents up and down the east coast probably shouldn't be panicking, but they should be watching and bracing for strong winds and heavy rains even without a bulls eye strike.  The National Hurricane Center is on top of the situation and the latest track is revealed below...

Hurricane_Earl_Path.gif picture by brettsblog

The latest track has Earl threatening the Carolinas, the Delmarva Peninsula, and New England.  If Earl throws any clouds our way, it will be during the day on Friday.  It will still be a strong storm and probably listed as a category two hurricane as it moves toward the New York/New Jersey coastline.  Stay tuned as Earl's track continues to develop every few hours...

In the meantime, we have to deal with the heat.  While yesterday wasn't all that humid, today may bring a bit more humidity into the picture.  If that's the case, take some time and sit in the air conditioning or take one last swim in the pool before fall truly arrives.  Once that front pushes through on Friday, temperatures take a cool turn for the holiday weekend.  If the mercury reaches 90 or higher this afternoon, this will be our fifth heat wave this summer...check out the high temperature projects for the eastern U.S. below!  Have a great Tuesday!

Brett_Blog_3-21.jpg picture by brettsblog

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