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Stormtrack Center Team reveals outlook for rest of summer

HARRISBURG, Pa. (WHTM) - - Heading into the spring, we predicted that conditions would become mild and wet. The mild weather waited a bit with a cool April, but we certainly picked up the pace by the second half of spring for May and June. 

In between our temperature swings, the rain continued to add up. At times we had only one sunny and dry day that was quickly followed by multiple days in a row of showers and storms. 

As a result of all this wet weather, we now have a healthy surplus of rain, almost 7 inches!

For summer, our main source of rain arrives from thunderstorms. Our hot start to the summer has actually limited storms. 

As the air warms, we sometimes lose the energy needed for storms. So at least for the first half of July, plan on drier conditions. 

But what about the tropics? Can we see any rain from the tropical systems as hurricane season ramps up?

It is a complete reversal from last year. The tropical Atlantic is now the coolest it has been since 1982. 

Last year, the waters were warmer sustaining strong hurricanes, making for a hurricane season we won't soon forget. 

Another factor to consider for hurricane season, the developing El Niño. El Niños tend to limit tropical activity as winds near the equator strengthen and rip developing storms apart. 

All in all, we expected a calmer hurricane season with a below average total of named storms and hurricanes. 

Back in the summer of 1982, we can use this year as a comparison point or analog to see what the rest of this summer could bring.

 July of 1982 brought slightly above average temperatures to the midstate, cracking the top 20 warmest Julys on record. But nothing remarkable in terms of rain. 

The more interesting summer month in 1982 was August. It was the 5th coolest August on record for Harrisburg. Surprisingly, the August of 1982 was not a rainy month, with only about 2 and a half inches of rain reported.

The abc27 Stormtrack Center Team summer outlook calls for a warmer than average summer, with some cooler spells for August that may last several days. 

Rain totals will be near average, with drier weather expected compared to the last six months. Look for little to no influence from the tropics until possibly later in the hurricane season. There isn't much tropical activity expected this summer. 


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