Starting Monday, we can expect a southerly flow of moisture that will likely not end until Friday. While it is hard to tell when each batch of moisture will arrive, we do know we will be in position for *some* heavier periods of rain. Monday morning should begin with scattered light showers as the atmosphere is primed with this moist flow. As the humidity climbs and the sun breaks through the clouds during the afternoon, a few slow moving thunderstorms could develop. Severe weather is not likely, but the slow-moving and possibly training of storms (areas of rain stuck over one area) could lead to locally heavy downpours.
The amount of moisture will continue to rise in the atmosphere for Tuesday and Wednesday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred head northward. This moisture combined with the already moist southerly (or times southeasterly) flow could spell additional periods of heavy rain. The trends day-to-day will need to be monitored, but at this time we do not expect widespread flooding concerns.
Lingering areas of rain will persist for Thursday and Friday, but the heaviest rain based on current projections should be Tuesday-Wednesday. There are a few wild cards in this forecast. We do not have an exact track for Tropical Depression Grace, and that system could throw additional moisture into the southern US as soon as the end of this week and next weekend. The slow nature of this weather pattern for the upcoming week is also a concern- could heavy periods of rain unfortunately dwell over the same Midstate locations? All in all, we will keep track of the latest changes and keep you aware of the rain total forecast. So far we feel confident in a 1-3″ average rain forecast. Again this could change, but this does not raise a big flooding concern at this point. There is just enough rain to keep the forecast consistently damp from Monday through Thursday, with no single day appearing to be a full washout.