(WHTM) – An endorsement by former President Donald Trump could significantly sway voters in the Pennsylvania Senate and Governor elections, according to a new WHTM/Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll.
The poll found that 61% of Republicans would be more likely to support a candidate endorsed by the former president. More than 25% said an endorsement would make no difference and 13.2% said it would make them less likely to support a candidate.
On April 9 Trump endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz in the Republican Senate primary, but has not yet endorsed a candidate in the crowded Governor’s race.
Sean Parnell, who received Trump’s initial endorsement in the Senate race, dropped out in November after losing a custody fight with his estranged wife.
Oz, who is virtually tied with McCormick in the race, featured Trump on “The Dr. Oz Show” and was a member of the President’s Council on Sports, Nutrition and Fitness.
McCormick has been endorsed by Parnell and former Trump Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Senate candidate Carla Sands served as Trump’s Danish ambassador starting in 2017.
Several of the candidates in both races have ties to the former president. Gubernatorial candidate Bill McSwain was a Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney and Lou Barletta was endorsed by Trump in the 2018 Senate race.
Jake Corman, President Pro Tempore of Pennsylvania’s Senate, hired former Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway as an advisor. Doug Mastriano has been a public and active supporter of former President Trump and was subpoenaed by the January 6 committee.
In the Senate race, Dave McCormick had interviewed with Trump in 2016 for a possible position in his administration.
According to the poll, younger voters were the least likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate with 39.3% of voters 18-29 less likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate. About 64% of voters 65 or older said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support the candidate.
Voters with a post-graduate degree or higher were also more likely to not support a Trump-endorsed candidate with 24.5% opposing. Fifty-eight percent of voters with a high school diploma or less would be more likely to support the candidate and 71.6% with some college education were also more likely.
Rural voters are also more likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate at 68%. More men (5.1%) than women said they were less likely to support the candidate.
Among voters who supported Trump in the 2020 election, 67.7% said an endorsement made them more likely to vote for Trump’s endorsed candidate.
The WHTM/Emerson College Polling/The Hill Pennsylvania poll was conducted from March 26-28, 2022. The general election sample consisted of registered voters in Pennsylvania, n=1,069 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The Republican primary sample consisted of likely voters, n=372, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/-5.0 percentage points. The Democratic primary sample consisted of likely voters, n=471, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/-4.5 percentage points.
The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2020 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced.
Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.