PENNSYLVANIA (WHTM) – Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro is favored to win the Pennsylvania Governor race, according to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 Forecast Model.

As of 1 p.m. on July 5, Shapiro is favored to win Pennsylvania’s election for Governor, defeating State Senator Doug Mastriano in 74% of models. The model found Shapiro would defeat Mastriano with 51.1% of the vote to a projected 46.7% for Mastriano and 2.2% for other candidates.

The model lists the Pennsylvania race as “leaning Democrat,” compared to the race being a toss-up, likely Democrat or solid Democrat.

The Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.

Polls are weighted by factors such as sample size and pollster rating. Shapiro has led three recent polls by 3-4%, including two polls with 48-49% support.

Shapiro’s chances of winning the race have not wavered much in the model, starting at a 74% chance of winning the seat since the model first started tracking on June 1. One model showed Shapiro winning with 60% and another found Mastriano’s biggest win at 55.9%.

A majority of Shapiro’s wins in the model appeared to be within 10% of Mastriano, while some had a virtual tie in the race.

The model also found a toss-up for control of the U.S. Senate in November and Republicans favored to win the U.S. House.

Pennsylvania’s general election in November 8, 2022.