(WHTM) – A new poll in the Pennsylvania Governor race shows a closer contest between Josh Shapiro and Doug Mastriano than previous polls have reported.
The new poll from Emerson College Polling shows Shapiro, the Democrat Party nominee, with 47% to Mastriano’s 44%. Six percent were undecided and three percent said they would support a third party.
Like the US Senate race between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz, voters expect the Democratic candidate to prevail in the gubernatorial election; 57% expect Shapiro to win while 43% expect Mastriano to win.
According to the Emerson poll, a majority of very likely Pennsylvania voters (52%) have a very or somewhat favorable view of Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s current Attorney General. Forty-five percent of voters have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Mastriano, while 49% have a somewhat (7%) or very (43%) unfavorable view.
The poll shows that 10.8% of Republicans would support Josh Shapiro over Mastriano, while 8.7% of Democrats would support Mastriano.
Mastriano also led among independents with 52% to Shapiro’s 36.7%, while nearly 5% supported a third party and more than 6% were undecided. Voters with some college education or less supported Mastriano, while Shapiro led among college-educated voters.
Shapiro held a substantial lead among voters 18-34 (68.4% compared to 30.1%) while Mastrian held slim leads in the 35-49 and 50-64 age groups. Voters 65 and older favored Shapiro.
Mastriano and Shapiro each had clear bases in different regions of the state with 68.4% of urban voters supporting Shapiro and 63.5% of rural voters supporting Mastriano. Shapiro had a 1.4% lead among suburban voters.
Among female voters, Shapiro led Mastriano by 11% while Mastriano led among men by 5%.
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An overwhelming number of voters (44.5%) cited the economy (jobs/inflation/taxes) as their biggest priority. Abortion access was the second highest issue at 14.3%, followed by crime and healthcare.
President Biden holds a 39% approval in the Keystone state, while 57% disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president.
The Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters was conducted August 22-23, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=1,034, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.