(WHTM) – Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a 14% lead over Republican Doug Mastriano in the latest Pennsylvania Governor race poll from Franklin & Marshall College.

Shapiro holds a 51-37% advantage in the poll when voters are asked who they’re leaning toward. Shapiro’s lead shrinks to 10 points (52-42) among likely voters.

Shapiro received a larger share of Democrats (83%) than Mastriano did of Republicans (69%) and Shapiro led among Independents 54% to 35%.

The lead for Shapiro less than six weeks away from the election mirrors other statewide polls that show him with a double-digit lead. Shapiro has recently outraised Mastriano 8-1 according to recent financial statements.

Shapiro’s favorability rating also outranked Mastriano with Shapiro finishing at 45% favorable to Mastriano’s 27%. Mastriano’s unfavorable rating finished at 52% while Shapiro’s unfavorable finished at 33% among voters.

More voters believe Shapiro best understands the concerns of Pennsylvanians (49% to 31%) and is closer to their views on social issues (49% to 32%). Mastriano and Shapiro are relatively close based on having policies that will improve voters’ economic circumstances (36% to 34%).

Three in four (75%) Pennsylvania voters believe that things in the US are “on the wrong track.” More than half of the voters said they’re “worse off” than they were a year ago financially and only 10% said they were “better off” financially than a year ago.

Only 28% of registered voters believe Pennsylvania is “headed in the right direction” and 75% of voters believe that things in the US are “on the wrong track.”

Methodology

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted September 19- 25, 2022. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall. The data included in this release represent the responses of 517 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 235 Democrats, 210 Republicans, and 72 independents. The sample of voters was obtained from Marketing Systems Group. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography, vote history, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics. Estimates for age, geography, and party registration are based on active voters within the PA Department of State’s voter registration data. Gender and education is estimated using data from the November 2018 CPS Voter Registration Supplement. The sample error for this survey is +/- 5.6 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. An alternative means of calculating the variation in a sample is to take a series of bootstrap samples from the original sample and to use those bootstrapped samples to produce an estimate of sampling error. The procedure involves resampling a data set, calculating a statistic for each bootstrapped sample, accumulating the results of these samples and calculating a sample distribution. The standard deviation of the mean of 10,000 bootstrapped samples for the estimated positive job approval for President Biden was 2.0% and 95% of the samples fell within a range of 25% and 33%.

In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.