(WHTM) – A poll conducted in the lead-up to abc27’s Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Debate shows Democrat John Fetterman with a four-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz.
The October Franklin & Marshall College poll had Fetterman leading among likely voters 49% to 45%, a two-point lead for Fetterman compared to their September poll.
The poll found voters believe Fetterman “best understands the concerns of Pennsylvanians” (55% to 34%) and “is closest to their views on social issues” (53% to 35%).
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Voters in the poll also believe Oz “is more likely to have policies that will improve voters’ economic circumstances” (43% to 37%).
Fetterman received 57% support from women while Oz led among male voters with 51%.
Voters making $75,000 or less supported Fetterman with more than 50% support. Voters making more than $75,000 supported Oz by two points.
Fetterman received 57% support in the Philadelphia/Southeast, Northeast, and Allegheny/Southwest region, while Oz had 58% and 59% support in Northwest and Central Pennsylvania.
About two in three (66%) Pennsylvania registered voters are “very interested” in the
upcoming election, and most (90%) report they are “certain” to vote.
About half (49%) of respondents say that they are “worse off” financially than a year ago.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating in Pennsylvania finished at 36%, on par with Donald Trump and above Barack Obama at similar points in their first terms.
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted Oct. 14-23, 2022. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall. The data included in this release represent the responses of 620 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 280 Democrats, 254 Republicans, and 86 independents.
The sample of voters was obtained from Marketing Systems Group. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography, vote history, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics. Estimates for age, geography, and party registration are based on active voters within the Pennsylvania Department of State’s voter registration data. Gender and education is estimated using data from the November 2018 CPS Voter Registration Supplement.
The sample error for this survey is +/- 5.3 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered. An alternative means of calculating the variation in a sample is to take a series of bootstrap samples from the original sample and to use those bootstrapped samples to produce an estimate of sampling error. The standard deviation of the mean of 10,000 bootstrapped samples for the estimated positive job approval for President Biden was 1.9%, and 95% of the samples fell within a range of 32% and 39%.
In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process.
Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.