PENNSYLVANIA (WHTM) – A poll by Emerson College Polling, possibly the final check of voters before Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Senate primary, has Mehmet Oz leading the Republican field with 28%.

Political commentator Kathy Barnette, who has surged in recent weeks both in popularity and criticism, finished second with 24%, followed by Dave McCormick at 21%.

Former Danish ambassador Carla Sands received 7% and Jeff Bartos received 6% in the poll. Attorney George Bochetto received 1% and 15% were still undecided with the poll conducted the weekend prior to election day.

The 15% of undecided voters were asked a follow-up question on who they are leaning towards. With their support allocated, Oz increases his support to 32%, followed by Barnette with 27%, and McCormick with 26%.

Unlike other recent polls, the Donald Trump endorsed-Oz pulled ahead of the +/- 3% margin of error in what appears to be a razor-thin three-way race

Despite finishing a close third in the poll, the former hedge fund CEO McCormick was the most favorable candidate in the poll of 1,000 Pennsylvania Republican primary voters. McCormick had a 46% favorable rating compared to Barnette’s 43% and Oz’s 37%.

Oz had the highest unfavorable rating of the top three candidates with 48%, compared to McCormick with 32% and Barnette at 28%.

There is a generational divide among Republican voters in the Senate primary with 33% of those under 50 breaking for McCormick, whereas those over 50 break for Oz with 38%. Just 15% support among those over 50 support McCormick. Barnette does best with 30-64 year old voters with 32%.

Oz trails McCormick in the suburbs 32% to 27%, while Barnette leads Oz in rural areas 31% to 28%. In the urban/city areas, Oz receives 31%, followed by McCormick at 26% and Barnette at 21%.

Oz has 32% of the female vote and receives 25% of the male vote, Barnette receives an equal break of 24% apiece while McCormick’s base is the male vote at 28% compared to 13% of the female vote.

The poll did not survey Democratic voters with Lt. Governor John Fetterman leading a recent Franklin & Marshall poll by nearly 40 points over Congressman Conor Lamb.

Fetterman was hospitalized the weekend prior to the May 17 primary after suffering a stroke. He’s expected to fully recover and says doctors reported no signs of cognitive damage.

Polling Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Pennsylvania poll of Republican primary voters was conducted May 14-15, 2022. The Republican primary sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by age, gender, region, education and mode based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.