Beyond the Forecast: Early Summer Outlook

Beyond the Forecast

The hot and humid weather comes to a close for mid to late June...

After a week of a lot of heat and humidity that featured our first heatwave, now is a good time to examine how the pattern may take shape heading into summer. Summer officially begins June 20 at 11:32 PM, but the current hot weather pattern is breaking down ahead of it. This upcoming weekend with highs in the low to mid-80s and lower humidity offers a sneak peek at what ends the heat and humidity- cooler, northwest flow.

We see a northwest flow developing for next week as a huge area of high pressure develops over the western US. As this big ridge develops, our weather downstream becomes stuck in a trough of low pressure. This means our temperatures are held closer to seasonable averages in the low to mid-80s. If a developing storm system gets hung up in this slowly-changing flow, it may mean clouds could stay stubborn with some better chances for rain. In general, though, the air arriving from the northwest tends to be dry with only scattered showers/storms chances as fronts roll by. This is not great news for local farmers and gardeners who are relying on more rain.

Just beyond the weekend of June 20-21, we will have to keep watch on the Gulf of Mexico- specifically for any tropical activity. We may or may not see a named storm, but model guidance continues to favor the western Gulf of Mexico for a strong flow of moisture heading into the southern US. Depending on the jet stream position, this may mean some rain opportunities for the Midstate, or this rain could be shunted south. A push northward of this plume of moisture could bring some welcome relief to the local dry conditions.

Heading into early July we can almost bank on more heat and humidity moving back into the region as the longwave pattern across the United States is expected to level out. This means the large ridge of high pressure should break down allowing more heat to build across the central and eastern US. By this time our rain chances will likely come from scattered storms with the building humidity. This type of pattern is common for early July as we enter into the statistically hottest period of the year on average. One caveat to keep in mind- most tropical outlooks show a very active Atlantic hurricane season. Rain and moisture from tropical systems are not common locally in early July, but one storm could bring beneficial rain to the entire region. Since this is not likely, we are calling for the drier than normal conditions to continue through at least early July as we rely on the scattered/random thunderstorm activity for our rain.

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