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Beyond the Forecast: Fall-Early Winter Weather

Beyond the Forecast

by: WHTM Staff

Posted: Oct 23, 2019 / 08:36 PM EDT / Updated: Nov 8, 2019 / 08:38 AM EST

Copyright 2021 Nexstar Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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More Beyond the Forecast Stories

Learning about January’s forecast from December’s weather

by Dan Tomaso / Jan 13, 2021

Long range forecasting can be very difficult whether it is looking two weeks out or up to a whole season out, but meteorologists look for clues in the larger weather pattern to help. One of those clues is looking at recent remarkable weather that has occurred and what has followed those particular events. For example if the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast had a wet month, does that mean the next month is wet or dry? Some times the answer is obvious. Other times not so much.

The Pennsylvania State Climatologist office at Penn State did a recent study looking back at December 2020. The remarkable features that were noted include a wet Northeast, a dry upper Midwest, and a warm Northern Rockies weather pattern. A list of similar December weather patterns were compiled. The list included the Decembers of 1896, 1900, 1939, 1954, 1957, 1962, 1979, 1986, 1993, 1997, 2002, 2003, and 2014.

Read the Full Article

What Is Stratospheric Warming And How Does It Affect Our Weather?

by Adis Juklo / Jan 13, 2021

The Polar Vortex is a naturally occurring area of low pressure that spins around the north pole every winter. Our weather here at home changes as the strength of the polar vortex changes. When the vortex weakens, the typical cold it bottles up near the poles is displaced, allowing rounds of Arctic air to spill into the northern United States. When the polar vortex is unusually strong like during the winter of '19-'20, cold air is kept at bay and we stay mild.

Typically, a weakening of the vortex is initiated by a process known as stratospheric warming. Remember the polar vortex meteorologists usually refer to is located in the stratosphere which is a layer of the earth's atmosphere approximately 10-30 miles above the surface. Waves in the lower atmosphere can be so intense that they propagate upward into the stratosphere which can raise stratospheric temperatures by several degrees Celsius. If the warming is intense and fast enough, it can cause a complete disruption of the polar vortex as typical westerly winds aloft are weakened and reversed. The vortex can either be displaced from the pole or split into two, which can cause strong 'blocking' of high pressure over the pole and typically leads to more impactful winter weather over the mid-latitudes.

Read the Full Article

January Weather Outlook

by Adis Juklo / Jan 4, 2021

Meteorologist Adis Juklo takes a look at what could be our most active month this winter.

Read the Full Article

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