Beyond the Forecast: Understanding the dry and snowless January pattern

Beyond the Forecast

Meteorologists Dan Tomaso and Adis Juklo looked into the details and science behind this historically dry and quiet January weather. What looked like to be a great pattern for snow and wintry weather opportunities turned out to be perhaps not quite favorable after all. Cold air has been locked (or blocked) up near eastern Canada and Greenland. This usually leads to a favorable weather pattern for the East Coast to see big coastal winter storms. However, the strength of the cold air may be the problem. The area of high pressure may be too strong and stubborn to allow storms to pass through the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This strong area of high pressure may be pushing the storm track too far south more often than not, or squashing the moisture all together as it heads north.

In addition, the strong west to east jet stream across the United States may be too strong leading to weaker storms overall. There is definitely a lot to think about here! Between last winter and now this current one, there have been a lot of factors working against snow for Central PA!

The anti-snow factors that have plagued January so far (only a trace of snow recorded at HIA as of Wednesday, January 27) may impact the next storm later this weekend and early next week. Will the pattern allow for a transfer from an incoming low-pressure system over the Ohio Valley to a Mid-Atlantic coastal low while giving the Midstate a solid dose of winter weather? This is a major question as the model guidance shows multiple scenarios playing out. Watch this edition of Beyond the Forecast as Dan and Adis break all of this down!

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