(WHTM) — We have been talking about an upcoming pattern change that would feature lower humidity and cooler conditions for this weekend and beyond into next week. As we now get closer to those days, the model guidance has come into an agreement of a large trough or dip in the jet stream moving eastward that could sit over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through at least the middle of next week (Wednesday-Thursday).
This Friday (building trough/dip in the jet stream):
Next Monday (persistent/lingering trough):
While this pattern guarantees high temperatures will be closer to 80° rather than 90°, it is still hard to determine how much rain the Midstate could squeeze out from this overall change. Typically a large shift in air masses will help produce needed precipitation. Some mornings early next week could start damp, but daily rain chances are not likely. At this point, the highest probability of rain looks to be next Monday followed by a lingering chance of rain Tuesday.
Chance for rain Monday:
Another point to watch in the extended forecast is how long this pattern could stall. A large heat wave and ridge of high pressure may once again expand east with time, however if an upper-level low stalls out near the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this may prolong our more seasonably-comfortable weather pattern.