Thanksgiving is approaching and while the big day is one week away, the week leading up to Thanksgiving is often fraught with busy schedules of grocery shopping, food preparation, and travel. If you are curious about the weather next week, fear not! We’ve got your Thanksgiving forecast menu right here.

The Amuse Bouche (Thursday & Friday):

If you are hoping to get some outdoor plans completed, the next two days should allow for it. Perhaps you might even want to hang your Christmas lights before the chill settles in late next week. Outdoor clean up of leaves and plant beds would be a good idea too. The weather should be perfect today with sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s. Tomorrow will be even warmer ahead of a cold front with highs in the upper 60s! Clouds will increase, but the daylight hours of Friday will be dry so no need to fear outdoor activities. The only issue will be a stiff southwesterly breeze ahead of the front. Any shower activity will move in Friday evening and overnight and it won’t be much. Less than 0.10″ is expected.

The Appetizer (This Weekend):

Clouds will clear quickly early Saturday leading to a sunny and dry weekend ahead. It will be a cooler weekend, though, behind the cold front. Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will be in the lower 50s and it will be breezy too, adding to the chill. Still, for November, it won’t be that bad and if you can tolerate the breeze, being outside will be just fine. Just take a jacket if you are heading to get your ingredients for the big meal.

The Main Course (Leading Up To Thanksgiving, Monday – Wednesday):

The rush will be on to secure supplies for Turkey Day and to head over the river and through the woods early next week. So the question is, will there be any weather issues to impede our plans? The short answer: not really. There won’t be any snow, let’s put it that way. Monday looks quiet but clouds will increase ahead of a strong low-pressure system that could actually bring the region its first soaking rain this month. While the rain may slow plans down a bit on Tuesday, it’s desperately needed. We have almost a 10″ deficit for 2023 and haven’t had any measurable rain in November…period. Tuesday looks to be the wet day, with some model guidance suggesting 1″ of rain is possible. The storm should move out early Wednesday pulling in much colder air behind it and turning the second half of Wednesday quite windy. But for those who plan to travel, most of Wednesday should be dry across the Mid-Atlantic.

Model guidance shows the potential for a soaking rain next Tuesday.
Rainfall next Tuesday could be around 1″ or more, but given the dry pattern, it’s best to remain dubious of these models for now.

Dessert (Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday):

Behind the rain next Tuesday, the weather will turn quite chilly. Thanksgiving Day will feature partly cloudy skies and high temperatures only in the mid-40s. It will continue to be breezy too and some lake effect snow showers are likely across northwestern parts of Pennsylvania. While the day will be dry for most, jackets will be needed if you are traveling locally. The same can be said of Black Friday where low temperatures will be in the 20s and daytime highs in the lower 40s. The weather should stay dry, but if you plan to leave the comfort of your home to shop, bundle up! Next week ends with the opposite weather of how this week is ending.

The upper air pattern shows a cold blob heading for the Northeast just in time for Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving Day should be dry and chilly.

Leftovers (Beyond Thanksgiving…):

Longer range forecasts indicate it stays chilly beyond the holiday. Could our first flakes be in store by the end of the month? It’s possible. But it’s also very hard to break a dry pattern. Maybe next Tuesday will help. But until the guidance starts showing more consistency with a wet pattern, dry and cool weather seems to be the rule for now and heading into the end of November and the start of the holiday season. Stay tuned.

-Meteorologist Brett Thackara